Friday, July 23, 2010

7/23/10 Midafternoon Report: European banks pass stress test, results of colonoscopy still pending

The market was quiet in the morning despite a slew of solid earnings announcements as it waited for the release of the Europe bank stress tests which were more highly anticipated than Lindsay Lohan's jail stint, Avatar's opening weekend, or Mel Gibson's next career limiting phone call.  Well the results came out midday and were exactly as worthless as one could have hoped.  Only 7 out of 91 banks failed the stress test including Munich based Hypo Real Estate, Greek based ATE Bank (which apparently "ate" a fuckload of bad loans), some Spanish banks, and Italy's Bank of Madoffia.  Of course these stress tests were weaker than the efficient market hypothesis in the era of high frequency traders or Haiti's infrastructure, so it's hard to get too excited about the results.

The stress tests failed to analyze whether banks could withstand a debt default by any European country and neglected to look at the entirety of banks' balance sheets (which is a bit like asking a female out on date but forgetting to check for an Adam's Apple) including completely leaving out any government bonds being held to maturity which is only the fucking majority of the sovereign debt held, so that makes as much sense as trying to diagnose rectal cancer with a broken thermometer and a loving touch. 

From day one it was obvious that the stress tests were more bogus than Iraq having weapons of mass destruction, MBA programs teaching anything useful, or Ricky Martin being interested in any female who bangs.  There was no way the EU was going to have the test results come out and show that a fucklaod of banks had failed and yet they also wanted to try to have some credibility and not have every bank pass because that would have been less believable than the US bank stress tests or GS' non-admission of guilt in the Abacus CDO manipulations.  So the Committee of European Banking Supervisors managed to find some BS Goldilocks scenario where 7 banks would fail in a number deemed to be just right in not causing more fear but also just right in showing that there are some problems.  So jolly good show, hope no one in the CEBS tore their black jeans in their rigorous assessment of the data.

The point is, the banks may be healthy or they may not be healthy, but don't piss on Money McBags and tell him that it's raining (unless you are Kelly Brook and just downed a case 1787 Chateau Lafite, and in that case, piss away) by claiming the tests that were run give any kind of conclusive evidence about the health of the EU's banking system.  So excuse Money McBags while he yawns this one out while the market rallies on the news. 

In other european news, Britain had a 1.1% increase in GDP which was double what economists had guessed but is still nowhere near pre-recession levels.  The country hopes their newly introduced dental sector can help spur GDP higher.  In Germany, business confidence rose the most since reunification and to its highest level in three years as the whole country celebrates schadenfreude at the downfall of their fellow EU members.  Finally, Hungary's credit rating may be falling to junk after their talks with the IMF went worse than Sarah Palin's talks with Bristol about abstinence.  A lower credit rating could leave investors in Hungary starving and will cause it to be more difficult for the country to raise money which it won't likely to be able to pay back anyway.  That said, the threat of credit ratings downgrades are coming from S&P and Moody's who, as always, suck at their jobs worse than a closterphobic magician's assistant, so take it for what it is worth.

And in China, worries are getting out that banks may not be able to collect on nearly a quarter of the loans they made to local governments for the building of airports, highways, and lunch delivery of the nation's favorite soup, cream of Sum Yung Gai.  Banking regulators haven't addressed this potential shortfall but Money McBags is sure they will successfully manipulate their way out of it.

In market news, earnings are powering US companies like spinach powers Popeye or herpes powers Britney Spears (she does run on herpes, right?  It's the only logical conclusion with which Money McBags can come up for regarding the affair du Federline).  Ford reported a profit again and said they expect next year to be even better thanks to their new vibrating seats functionality.  The company was strongly cash flow positive with $2.6B of cash brought in and they say they will be in a net cash position by the end of next year (and net cash is Money McBags' third favorite position, right behind lowering taxes and reverse cowboy).  Ford's sales were up 28% in the first half which is twice the industry average as consumers move down market and no longer care about status.

In other earnings news, MCD beat estimates yet traded down as it missed whatever the whisper number analysts made up but were to chickenshit to actually put on paper was.  Money McBags will never understand the concept of a whisper number (unless it is Olivia Munn whispering Money McBags her number) because it is a bigger cop out than "it got lost in the mail," "I was young at the time," or running to Miami to play with Dwyane Wade.  In theory, sell side analysts get paid to provide their unbiased opinions while in practice they get paid to pump up the stocks for whom their firms are trying to raise money, to write meaningless daily updates, and to anally rape sheep (ok, one of those may be made up) and the lameness of not having the nuts to put a whisper number in any of their daily drivel says all one needs to know about paid research.  Anyway, MCD had a nice quarter with revenue up 5%, same store growth of 4.8%, $1.13 eps, and only 1k blocked coronary arteries in the Q.  Strong international growth helped fuel the results as MCD's cheap menu and and aspirational brand equity resonantes in countries with large poor populations such as India, China, and the United States.

Also, MSFT put up a big Q after running up yesterday in anticipation of good things happening like the resurgence of the corporate upgrade cycle, stronger sales of Windows, and Excel hardcoating goalseek to always find the lovely Sofia Vergara.  EPS was up 48% to $.51 and revenue grew from $13B to $15B, both numbers handily beating analyst guesses though the numbers could contain a trojan horse virus so no one wants to get close enough to them to really dig in.

Finally, Verizon slapped their cocks on the table and yelled "can you hear me now?" as they beat guesses by $.02 per share by earning $.58 per share despite flatish revenue growth and no exposure to the iPhone thanks to better operation.  And AXP beat estimates and tripled their profts as customer spend was up 16% and like all financial companies, they lowereed their provisioning, likely just in time to have to raise it again for the second dip in the upcoming recession.

Not all was lobster tails and blow jobs though as AMZN missed their earnings estimates despite growing the top and bottom lines by 40%+.  Analysts had guessed the company would earn $.54 per share but instead they earned $.45 per share due to an increase in operating expenses as the company has to spend more on advertising to convince people that the Kindle wasn't outdated two months ago with the release of the iPad or ~600 years ago with the release of the printing press.  Amazon has always seemed like a nebulous investment to Money McBags given the competition, relatively low barriers to entry for specialty sites, and consistently high valuation so he is as happy to not be involved in this stock as Dan Quayle is happy not to be involved in a spelling bee (and yes, Money McBags just whipped out a 20 year old punch line because frankly, 1k-1.5k words of dick jokes a day is a blistering pace, even for a talent like Money McBags).

In small cap news, IBKR reported and managed to shit all over themselves, and Money McBags' thesis, as if they didn't just have Montezuma's Revenge but had his ire, hatred, and angst as well.  Their results made Money McBags sadder than he was this morning when read that the inventor of the black box had died until he realized it was this guy and not Roxy Reynolds or Vanessa Del Rio's mom.

Anyway, before we get to IBKR's numbers, Money McBags wants to apologize for saying buying some options in this piece of shit company ahead of earnings would be a good strategy.  He believes his logic was sound, but unfortunately he made the mistake of believing he had correctly called the bottom of one of the biggest value traps the market has seen since AIG in 2006 or Elizabeth Berkley's acting career pre-Showgirls, so he is sorry for that.  Never again will he give a fuck about this shitty company whose market making business which is based on voaltility couldn't profit when the market was, umm, how to put this lightly, fucking volatile. 

IBKR earned $.09 per share in the Q which was down from $.31 per share in last year's Q and continued the unpredictable nature of this company whose quarters are more up and down than Oprah's weight (see, Money McBags could write for Leno, no problem) or Faye Reagan on a sybian (he could also write for the AVN awards, he is bi-comedial).  Their internet brokerage business fared well and continued to grow increasing accounts by 20% and customer equity by 43% but all of that was irrelevant because their market making business made a mockery of themselves and only had a 5% pre-tax profit margins leading to a profit of $3.9MM which was down 97% from last year.

The stock is such a peice of shit that their CEO who is an ~80% owner has given up trying to make it seem like anything someone would want to invest in and is instead now marketing the stock as some type of hedge for anyone who wants to keep their portfolio from growing too much.

The CEO said: "increasing fluctuations in foreign exchange markets have a corresponding impact on our reported results in U.S. dollars. This makes it ever more apparent that our shares would be more appropriately considered as an investment in a global enterprise based in a diversified basket of currencies rather than in U.S. dollars."

So any of you out there who own a global enterpirse, buy away.

On the call, CEO Peterffy claimed that the appreciation of the dollar cost them $72MM in revenue or $.16 per share because it's always one excuse or another.  Anyway, Money McBags clearly fucked up and was speculating on market volatility causing earnings to appreciate, which apparently they would have had the dollar not strengthened, but whatever.  As Money McBags was speculating, he said to buy options and not the stock so your losses would be minimized, but either way, fuck this company and if any of you ever read Money McBags trying to give an opinion on IBKR other than he has no idea and they hate turning out a profit, you have permission to punch Money McBags in the nuts while forcing him to listen to the melodic stylings of Celine Dion.

So have a good weekend and remember When Genius Prevailed is on Facebook and Twitter.

77 comments:

Anonymous said...

> In Germany, business confidence
> rose the most since reunification
> and to its highest level in three
> years as the whole country
> celebrates schadenfreude at the
> downfall of their fellow EU
> members.

Naturally you'll have sources for this?

...

What, you don't? Wow, what a surprise. Because it's not true. Yes, Germans are relieved that they're doing pretty well, but there's no such thing as Schadenfreude at all. Because they know that THEY will be asked in the end to bail out those EU partners which are off worse.

Sorry, but your blog entry smacks of a repetition the clueless babbling about Europe which you find in the US Business press: The same who strangely never seem to get anything right with their predictions.

Big surprise.

Anonymous said...

Not sure if this is a porn bog with interspersed financial comments, or a financial blog written by someone who has spent mega time becoming familiar with large breasted sirens.

You have to know that after reading good financial analysis, your next action could possibly be a trade in the market... hmmm going to short the KITD, what a POS with those giant receivables.. what is all that about anyway hmmm..

But after gazing at numerous large breasted and liberally oiled amazons, what possibly be the next act?

This entire blog is over-filled with incessant metaphors. One tires of two and sometimes strings of three metaphors. Its too much work and its too tiring.

Either post up a link of Ivana Fukkalot getting bent over the sink, or talk about the markets as f'd up as they are, and maybe throw in some snide commentary about the fickle fukkers of wall street. But don't do both. T&A can fukk up a nice trade, and too much money on the brain can bring on the whiskey dick.

Yer Pal.

PS: why don't you do a puff piece on ETRADE. That one is ready to pop big,and you should be on board.

Peace and nipples.

Anonymous said...

I feel your pain, IB is suffering rather badly at the hands of hft competition.

high frequency scammers basically steal all the $ IB could be making and don't have the market making obligation.

They need to be shut down

Anonymous said...

Anon,

Shut the hell up you loser. Get your own blog, dike!

I happen to like the pics.

Anonymous said...

But I like Ivana.

And i like the market.

But this blog is lost.

Anonymous said...

This blog is a gutterball.

GUTTERBALL, GUTTERBALL.. ALL within 6 feet of release!

Anonymous said...

Keep it up, this is one of the few funny stock blogs out there. I can't wait until the next post. Getting high on pics. Just not ivana.

Money McBags said...

Anonymouses (or is it Anonymi?),

Money McBags appreciates both your constructive criticism and your support.

To the anonymous who is confused about the point of this blog, Money McBags can assure you it is neither a:

"porn bog with interspersed financial comments"

and not just because it's not covered in acidic peat like a moss and lichen, but because there is very little pornography involved. This would be an example of a porn bog though it is very NSFW, and I think you'd also agree, not what Money McBags does.

nor is it:

"a financial blog written by someone who has spent mega time becoming familiar with large breasted sirens."

and not because Money McBags hasn't spent a lot of time studying females with giant fun bags, but because he has also spent a lot of time becoming familiar with voluptuous derrieres, and their associated muffs. So to pigeonhole (as opposed to cornhole) Money McBags' knowledge to such a singular expertise is frankly insulting and shortsighted.

That said, he's glad you have found When Genius Prevailed and are enjoying the fruits of his labor. And if you think the metaphors are tiresome to read, try fucking writing them. Jeesh, they are more painful for Money McBags to write than having a rusty catheter inserted in to the urethra without the aid of either a local anesthetic or a gentle ball tickle from Riley Steele and also more painful to write than having to watch CNBC. So how about some fucking sympathy for Money McBags who simply does it for the kids?

As for the other anonymous who seems to be a fine person and a fan of WGP, much love young grasshopper, much love. That said, Money McBags believes a "dike" is something you stick your finger in to stop a leak, while a "dyke" is something Ellen Degeneres sticks her finger in, sometimes while taking a leak. So lets get our vowels straight.

To the pain,

Money McBags

Anonymous said...

OK. I think I understand you need for constant metaphors.

Do I understand you correctly that the European banks 'sailed through' their stress tests?

Unbelievable. I know for a fact that they European Commission on the Next Holocaust (banking crash) needed to pass most of the banks. So they grabbed the quiz sheet from the 2009 Miss Teen USA contest. Of course they had to translate it, but the results were remarkable. A large majority of the banks PASSED. Time to make more loans to whorehouses in Amsterdam.

Anonymous said...

You can hire dikey Anon as ball tickler!

Anonymous said...

Money McBags is the man. He is the only one doing what he does on the web. Bringing levity and joy and skin to a tired financial universe. Please, all you haters, kindly piss off. Genius has prevailed again.

Money McBags said...

Anonymous,

Perhaps reading comprehension is also one of your cute little foibles, along with typing and spelling (as we all know When Genius Prevailed is not a NSFW porn bog and if it were, Money McBags would have named it Marsh of Dimes or Swampass).

Anyway, Money McBags never said:

"European banks 'sailed through' their stress tests?"

Not even sure where you pulled that from as what Money McBags wrote is quite clear and critical of the foolish Europe bank stress tests. 

If anything his post eviscerates the charade and is fraught with hyperbole and dripping with sarcasm (though some of the dripping may be left over residue from Money McBags' session with Hannah Hilton the night before). 

Below is just a snippet of Money McBags' column if you're too tired to read the entirety of what he wrote (though perhaps you should re-read the column because you have interpreted it worse than Ray Charles interprets sign language).

The stress tests failed to analyze whether banks could withstand a debt default by any European country and neglected to look at the entirety of banks' balance sheets (which is a bit like asking a female out on date but forgetting to check for an Adam's Apple) including completely leaving out any government bonds being held to maturity which is only the fucking majority of the sovereign debt held, so that makes as much sense as trying to diagnose rectal cancer with a broken thermometer and a loving touch. 

From day one it was obvious that the stress tests were more bogus than Iraq having weapons of mass destruction, MBA programs teaching anything useful, or Ricky Martin being interested in any female
who bangs.

Hope that helps.

Watch the topline,

Money McBags

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,高級時計,オメガ シーマスター@何故と申し候はば、貴殿平生の行状誠に面白からず、別して、私始め村方の者の神仏を拝み候を、悪魔外道(げだう)に憑(つ)かれたる所行なりなど、屡(しばしば)誹謗(ひぼう)致され候由、確(しか)と承り居り候電源の神 一定の努力で戦略を持つことは?運の要因を排除する? 任意のインターネットマーケティング事業の成功または失敗の主なドライバーとしてより良い未来を与えるブランド時計ランキング ウールのこの種類の長さは最大1です

ただ単にこれらの二つの例で見ると、インターネットマーケティング、ビジネスの伝統的なランニング上の端を持っていると言うでしょう  大切な靴の一つは、ナイキズーム神戸バスケットボールシューズが属すると呼ばれる。 神戸シューフレックス溝は抵抗を増大させる。 実質的なゴムスパイクシューズはバイヤーの間で大きな市場です。 方法unbefiticial心電図の治療を提供する。 また、異なるサイズを持っています。 神戸は世界中に知られ、ブランドとなっており、この靴も広く体重極端な俊敏性を備えアップデート機能として使用されます。ブランド時計あなたのオンラインビジネスのあなたの成功の鍵であることに留意してください。 成功するためには当たり障りのランジェリーとセットを取ることができ考慮すべき事項である。 ナイキオメガ レディースこれらのカメラだけでなく そして熟練したナイキの靴のデザインのクリエイティブディレクター、エリック、彼は神戸のパフォーマンスとして改善していることに留意してくださいので、彼の靴はありません高温多湿の雰囲気がある地域では非常に切望された商品です。 すべてのエアコンの種類の中でもオメガ アクアテラ 3。 本物のuggsのhabenアイネMenge FelleフォンSchafenイムKofferraum、ダイexklusiven Komfort bietet。 Wenn SIE Nachahmungイスト、MITのeinerのFarbeでDAS nchsteマルアウフアイネgeflschte UGG著halten、Klarのイスト、DASSウェニガーオー、死ぬnicht tiefそう。 神戸は何回か指摘したように、あなたはサッカー選手が足首を巻く方法を何回も見たことがありますか? なく、もうバスケットボール選手より だから、Uggのブーツのコンセントはとても人気があるオメガ コンステレーションオメガ ランキング
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オメガ アンティーク
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